Morning Brief: Big Tech earnings wont be make or break for the stock market

Plus: Results from Tesla and Alphabet, Zuckerberg's AI plea, and projecting post-election inflation.  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏  ͏ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­ ­  

Wednesday, Jul 24

👋 Good morning! The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively, as the Russell jumped 1.2% on Tuesday ahead of the first two quarterly reports from Big Tech.

What we're watching ⚡️ Tesla slips after mixed results: Tesla stock initially fell in extended trading on Tuesday after its Q2 results missed expectations, though the company reported a beat on revenue and margins. The company's statement pointed to forthcoming innovations in efficiency and cost reductions while guiding to a lower growth outlook. The EV maker did, however, note its rumored "more affordable" EV was on track for the first half of 2025. ‌ 🦾 Alphabet tops estimates: Google's parent company reported profits in its cloud unit topped $1 billion for the first time as headline revenue and earnings also topped expectations. CEO Sundar Pichai pointed to "innovation at every layer," though the company's results are a reminder that fruits of the AI tree are still a ways from bearing, as losses for this segment deepened. ‌ 🤖 Zuckerberg's new "open" AI: Mark Zuckerberg posted a pitch on Tuesday for Meta's latest Llama AI model, which he says will be as strong as anything on the market and, most notably, will be open source. The tech CEO called for the industry to go the open-source route rather than the closed-source approach that OpenAI (despite the name!), Google, and others have chosen. This is a common tech theme we've seen play out, most notably with Apple's closed iOS versus Google's open Android system. In Zuckerberg's view, an open model would democratize innovation, improve security, and result in more capabilities for AI applications across the tech landscape. ‌ 🎶 Spotify doing more with less: Spotify's second quarter results Tuesday morning pushed the stock up 12% by market close as record profitability filled its sails despite disappointing user growth metrics. But the positive numbers were in line with the leaned-out efficient tech company ethos Spotify has been cultivating, one that now favors profitability over raw growth, and investors celebrated accordingly. And, at the same time, CEO Daniel Ek noted even more profit possibility: Users are actually asking to pay more for specific features. ‌ 💰 Wednesday's results: AT&T, Chipotle, and Ford highlight Wednesday's batch of quarterly results, with IBM, General Dynamics, Lamb Weston, and a few more opening their books in the wake of Tuesday's heavy hitters. On the economic data front, a variety of purchasing managers' indexes (PMI) are expected to show economic activity dropping slightly.

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What we're reading 🚫 Wiz rejects Google's $23 billion offer, seeks IPO instead. ‌ ⚡️ GM tumbles despite beat as EV plans stall. ‌ 🏡 Musk stirs new questions about where companies should call home. ‌ 🏷️ Biden is out, but it's still the inflation election. ‌ 📦 UPS shares drop after missing estimates due to high labor costs. ‌ 📲 Apple to release foldable iPhone as soon as 2026: The Information. ‌ 💸 $100M surge for Harris reorients the 2024 money race, again.

Big Tech earnings wont be make or break for the stock market Today's Takeaway is by Jared Blikre, Markets Reporter. ‌ Tesla and Alphabet kicked off Big Tech earnings on Tuesday with mixed results. Each fell in after-hours trading. ‌ But for all the hand-wringing about the concentration of outsized gains in the hands of a magnificent few, stock bulls have two reasons to cheer as earnings season intensifies. ‌ First, markets just completed a violent rotation that shifted winnings from the seven largest US stocks — Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Tesla, and Alphabet — to small-cap stocks and interest rate-sensitive names. ‌ Sectors like real estate, homebuilders, and regional banks are among those now leading the way. ‌ The severity of the move — which accelerated with the latest weak inflation numbers — shouldn't be discounted. ‌ Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, wrote that June was the Russell 2000's worst month versus the Nasdaq in over a year. Yet, she notes, July is already tracking the best since 2016. ‌ Meanwhile, in the land of giants, the Magnificent Seven lost $1.25 trillion in market cap value over seven sessions recently — just as the small-cap stocks started asserting strength. ‌ The trillion-plus drop in valuation by the Mag Seven represented an 8% fall in price — yet the overall market (the S&P 500) was off only 2% over the same time. Timing is everything. ‌ The other tailwind favoring bulls is a game of earnings catch-up. ‌ The S&P 493 (the S&P 500 minus the Mag Seven) is finally climbing out of an earnings recession, as noted by the BofA US Equity & Quant Strategy team. ‌ Earnings per share (EPS) for the S&P 493 have been "flat to down for the past five quarters," wrote BofA, even as EPS growth for all 500 names turned positive three quarters ago. ‌ This newfound strength for the rest of the market comes just as earnings growth is "expected to slow for the Magnificent Seven for the second straight quarter and again in the [third quarter]." ‌ It appears that even earnings growth is rotating on a higher time frame. ‌ The very fact that overall market volatility remains subdued despite these tectonic shifts taking place under the market's hood is a testament to the resilience of the bull market itself. ‌ And BofA expects the rally to continue through breadth expansion. "Given the high correlation between Tech's outperformance in stocks vs. earnings," the bank wrote, "we expect the narrowing growth differential to be the catalyst for the market to broaden out."

Chart of the day As investors grew more confident over the past month that former President Donald Trump would win the 2024 election, certain pockets of the stock market have outperformed. ‌ The "Trump trade," as some on Wall Street have dubbed the move, has been headlined by bets on energy companies, increased mergers and acquisitions, and higher bond yields, a sign investors are betting on a continued higher-inflation regime under a Trump presidency.

A submission from Oxford Economics lead US economist Bernard Yaros in volume three of the Yahoo Finance Chartbook helps explain why. Yaros's work shows the most inflationary outcome for the 2024 election cycle would be a Trump victory and a Republican sweep of both the House and the Senate. ‌ "The inflationary impact is greatest in a 'full-blown Trump' scenario where a Republican trifecta doubles down on tax cuts, higher defense spending, and tariffs," Yaros told Yahoo Finance. "Even in a 'limited Trump' scenario, where a Republican trifecta doesn't loosen fiscal policy or raise tariffs to the same extent, inflation is still meaningfully higher."

Morning Brief is written and edited by Ethan Wolff-Mann. For the web version, click here. Follow all the action throughout the day on Yahoo Finance and on the Yahoo Finance app.

Earnings and economic calendar Wednesday ‌ Economic data: MBA Mortgage Applications, week ending July 19 (+3.9% prior); S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July, preliminary (51.4 expected, 51.6 previously); S&P Global US services PMI, July, preliminary (55 expected, 55.3 previously); S&P Global US composite PMI, July, preliminary (54.8 previously); New home sales, month-over-month, June (+3.8% expected, -11.3% previously) ‌ Earnings: AT&T (T), Chipotle (CMG), Ford (F), IBM (IBM), General Dynamics (GD), Lamb Weston (LW), Las Vegas Sands (LVS), ServiceNow (NOW), Viking Therapeutics (VKTX), Waste Management (WM), Whirlpool (WHR) ‌ Thursday ‌ Economic data: Second quarter GDP, advance estimate (+1.9% annualized rate expected, +1.4% previously); First quarter personal consumption, advance estimate (+1.7% expected, 1.5% previously); Initial jobless claims, week ended, July 20 (243,000 previously); Durable goods, June preliminary (+0.5% expected, +0.1% previously) ‌ Earnings: American Airlines (AAL), AstraZeneca (AZN), Boston Beer (SAM), Deckers (DECK), Hasbro (HAS), Honeywell (HON), Juniper Networks (JNPR), Keurig Dr. Pepper (KDP), New York Community Bancorp (NYCB), RTX (RTX), Skechers (SKX), Southwest (LUV), Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), Valero (VLO)

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