| Ten months ago to the day, Ohio State held onto the briefest of national championship hopes, and then the clock struck midnight — literally. In the New Year's Eve playoff semifinal, the Buckeyes had lined up for a field goal that would have propelled them past the top-ranked Georgia Bulldogs and a date in the title game with less-fearsome-than-advertised TCU.
The calendar changed from 2022 to 2023 while the ball was in the air, and by the time it landed, wide left, Georgia was on the way to its second straight championship and Ohio State was left brokenhearted.
Tuesday night, the Buckeyes took a significant, if expected, step on the way back up the mountain. The College Football Playoff committee released its initial playoff rankings on Halloween night, and Ohio State got the treat of a No. 1 ranking. Georgia came in at No. 2, with Michigan and Florida State filling out the rest of the top four.
This isn't particularly surprising; Ohio State already has victories over Notre Dame and Penn State on its resume, while Georgia ... well, let's be polite and say Georgia's toughest challenges lay ahead. Michigan, like Georgia, remains untested (although that allegedly hasn't stopped it from allegedly looking to get the test answers ahead of time). Florida State has taken care of business all season, starting with a win over ranked LSU and continuing with a barnstorm right through the heart of the ACC.
The rankings aren't yet particularly significant; Georgia ranked No. 3 in last year's initial rollout and ended up the champ. For all the chaos that we forecast in college football around Halloween, things have a way of working themselves out by early December.
What the initial ranking does illuminate is the pathway that schools have to the playoff. Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State might be able to survive a loss if it came to a highly ranked team; Florida State, with no more ranked teams on its schedule, and No. 5 Washington, with ugly recent victories, might have to win out.
Oregon, Texas and Alabama's playoffs effectively begin this weekend. One-loss Oklahoma, Penn State and Ole Miss will need some — or a lot of — help to advance. A total of 13 schools have one or fewer losses, which means that onetime playoff hopefuls LSU, Notre Dame, Oregon State and Tennessee have to win out and pray for absolute chaos, and even that might not be enough.
Some of these teams will stumble, some will beat each other, and some will manage to saw off their own feet. For better or worse, this is the last year that we'll have only four teams in the playoffs. Next year, teams all the way down to No. 24 Tulane (!) would be in line for a playoff spot. Whether that's an improvement probably depends on whether you're pulling for a 5th- to 12th-ranked school right now.
Madness is about to unfold, starting this weekend. Chances are these rankings could look very different not just a month from now, but a week from now, too.
—Follow Jay Busbee on Twitter
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