Plus: Retail sales data, the Trump trade, and a fresh crop of corporate results from the financial sector. ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏
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👋 Good morning! Retail sales data and a fresh batch of financial sector corporate results await investors Tuesday. |
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| What we're watching | | 🇺🇸 The Trump trade: The first trading day after Saturday's assassination attempt on Donald Trump saw markets digesting a perceived higher probability of the former president winning again in 2024. With expectations that a second Trump presidency would bring looser regulations, higher tariffs, and tax cuts, the Dow hit an all-time high and the S&P 500 finished just below its high-water mark. Trump Media stock also rose over 31%. Trump also selected Silicon Valley-connected Senator J.D. Vance as his running mate.
🛒 Consumer retail check: Tuesday's June retail sales print will take the consumer's temperature and add more data to the conversation that has, so far, shown a cooling — but healthy — economy. May's data showed a surprise slowdown and recent inflation and labor data indicate that the run of consumer resiliency in the face of higher rates is finally tapering.
💰 Banks and insurance: Investors will hear from the next crop of big banks, financial institutions, and insurers Tuesday with Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, UnitedHealth, Charles Schwab, Interactive Brokers, Progressive, PNC Financial, and State Street reporting results. While the first few reports from big banks showed the traditional banking and deposit business under pressure, the investment banking business showed further promise, with Goldman Sachs' profit surging 150% from a year ago.
✂️ Powell blesses inflation data: Fed Chair Jay Powell said Monday that last week's CPI reading increased the central bank's confidence that inflation is getting under control. Powell, however, did not confirm one way or another when a future cut would come, even though markets are confident a September rate cut is in order.
🚕 Robotaxi update: Tesla CEO Elon Musk elaborated somewhat on the automaker's pushback of its robotaxi unveiling, which was moved from August to October. Musk said that Tesla needed to make design changes to the vehicle's front and to be able to "show off a few other things." The stock jumped 1.8% Monday. |
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| Bitcoin cements 'legitimate' status as Wall Street struggles toward a new consensus | | Today's Takeaway is by Myles Udland, Head of News.
In an interview on CNBC on Monday, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink had strong words for the crypto market.
"As you know," Fink told CNBC's Jim Cramer, "I was a skeptic [about bitcoin]." "I was a proud skeptic," Fink added. "And I studied it, learned about it, and I came away saying, 'My opinion five years ago was wrong. Here's my opinion today: I believe in the opportunity today.' I believe bitcoin is legitimate."
For some in the crypto community, these words from the CEO of the world's largest asset manager will be just that: words said by a powerful man in finance. They never needed Fink's, or anyone else's, validation.
For others, these comments are another significant step in bringing bitcoin — and cryptocurrencies more broadly — into the same conversation as stocks, bonds, and the other accepted constituents of a balanced portfolio.
Speaking later about bitcoin's role as a hedge against currency debasement and financial instability, Fink added, "I'm a major believer that there is a role for bitcoin in portfolios ... I see it as digital gold."
On BlackRock's earnings call Monday morning, Fink said the firm's bitcoin ETF, the iShares Bitcoin Trust, saw $4 billion in net inflows in the second quarter and $18 billion in its first six months. Fink added the fund was "the third-highest [grossing] exchange-traded product in the industry this year." Plenty of reason, then, to find the asset's legitimacy.
But to view Fink's optimism about bitcoin as a shallow sales pitch for an ETF that carries a higher fee than many of its larger equity and bond ETFs would be to miss the current pressures facing portfolio managers and the potential benefit bitcoin could confer.
As we wrote last week, concentration in the S&P 500 has made references to "the stock market" less meaningful than ever. The S&P 500 is interchangeably referred to as the "benchmark index." Yet its promise of offering a consensus benchmark for investors across the market doesn't feel like it used to.
Click here to read more on Yahoo Finance. |
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| Chart of the day | | Trump Media & Technology Group skyrocketed Monday after former President Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt at a Pennsylvania rally on Saturday.
Shares of the parent company of Trump's social media platform, Truth Social, surged as much as 41% to close around $41. Other Trump-related stocks, like conservative-leaning video platform Rumble, saw shares climb more than 20%.
Shares of DJT have been on a bumpy ride in recent months, oscillating between highs and lows. |
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 | | Last month, the stock popped (then fell) after current commander in chief Joe Biden stumbled in his first presidential debate of 2024 with Trump.
Trump maintains a roughly 60% stake in DJT. At current levels of around $41 a share, Trump Media boasts a market cap of roughly $5.6 billion, giving the former president a stake worth around $3.3 billion. Right after the company's public debut, Trump's stake was worth just over $4.5 billion.
— Alexandra Canal, Senior Reporter |
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| Earnings and economic calendar | | Tuesday
- Economic data: Retail sales, June (-0.2% expected, +0.1% previously); Import price index, June (-0.1% expected, -0.4% previously); Export price index, June (-0.1% expected, -0.6% previously); NAHB homebuilder sentiment, July (43 expected, 43 previously)
- Earnings: Bank of America (BAC), Morgan Stanley (MS), UnitedHealth (UNH), Charles Schwab (SCHW), Interactive Brokers (IBKR), Progressive (PGR), PNC Financial (PNC), State Street (STT)
Wednesday
- Economic data: Housing starts, June (+1.8% expected, -5.5% previously); Building permits, June (-0.6% expected, -3.8% previously); Industrial production, June (+0.4% expected, +0.9% previously); Federal Reserve Beige Book
- Earnings: Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), United Airlines (UAL), ASML (ASML), Discover (DFS), US Bancorp (USB), Citizens Financial (CFG), Ally Financial (ALLY), Synchrony (SYF), Alcoa (AA), Kinder Morgan (KMI), Steel Dynamics (STLD)
Thursday
- Economic data: Initial jobless claims, July 13 (228,000 expected, 222,000 previously); Continuing jobless claims (1.852 million previously)
- Earnings: TSMC (TSM), Netflix (NFLX), Domino's (DPZ), Blackstone (BX), Alaska Air (ALK), Abbott Labs (ABT), Novartis (NVS), Textron (TXT), Cintas (CTAS), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), PPG (PPG)
Friday
- Economic data: No major economic data set for release.
- Earnings: American Express (AXP), Travelers (TRV), Halliburton (HAL), SLB (SLB), Fifth Third (FITB), Regions Financial (RF)
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