While global markets are reeling from a fresh wave of tariffs and recession fears, Nigeria is walking a tightrope — keeping calm in the storm, at least for now.
U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping new tariff measures — including a 14% levy on Nigerian exports — have rattled economies worldwide. Wall Street is wobbling, European exchanges are on edge, and emerging markets are feeling the heat. But Nigeria's Finance Minister, Wale Edun, says: Don't panic just yet.
Speaking at the Corporate Governance Forum in Abuja, Edun insisted the U.S. tariffs would have only a "negligible effect" on Nigeria's export economy. Why? Because the bulk of Nigeria's U.S.-bound goods — a whopping 92% — are oil and minerals, which remain untouched by the new levy.
"In 2024 alone, Nigeria exported N5.5 trillion worth of goods to the U.S., and N5.08 trillion of that came from oil and minerals," Edun noted. "So, while the 14% tariff might sound steep, it barely touches our main revenue streams. For comparison, Vietnam is facing a 46% tariff and China 34% — Nigeria got off relatively easy. "Despite Edun's confidence, markets aren't as serene.
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On the Nigerian Exchange Limited (NGX), investor nerves are showing. Market capitalisation tumbled by ₦600 billion in just one day, and the All-Share Index slipped by over 1,200 points. Even solid earnings from top banks and blue-chip firms weren't enough to stop the bleeding, with over ₦100 billion in losses recorded in a single week.
Trading volumes have plunged too — transactions dropped nearly 31%, with the value of traded shares falling by a staggering 92.8%, signaling fading confidence and rising caution.
Blue-chip stocks like GTCO, UBA, Zenith Bank, and Nigerian Breweries took significant hits, while foreign investors continue to weigh their options amid global uncertainty.
Analysts warn that Nigeria could face steeper capital outflows if the Central Bank struggles to hold the naira steady or if the global economy takes a sharper downturn. Major banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs have now raised the likelihood of a U.S. recession in 2025 to 60% and 45% respectively.
Still, Edun remains optimistic, crediting the Tinubu administration for economic stabilisation and vowing that the government's economic team is "closely monitoring" global events.
Whether Nigeria's resilience holds or cracks under pressure remains to be seen — but for now, the message is clear: the tariff storm is here, but Nigeria isn't folding.
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