Nigeria has recorded its first food deflation in over 13 years as the National Bureau of Statistics NBS reported a sharp drop in headline inflation to 18.02 percent in September 2025 from 20.12 percent in August.
The major driver of the decline was food inflation which slowed to 16.87 percent compared to 21.87 percent in August. On a month on month basis food inflation fell by 1.57 percent marking the first negative reading since February 2012.
The decline reflects seasonal harvest effects stronger food supply and the recent rebasing of the inflation basket which adjusted price weights across consumer items.
Staple food prices moderated sharply during the month. A big bag of pepper fell by 25 percent to an average of N60000 while a 50kg bag of local rice dropped by 9.7 percent to N65000. Mackerel fish also recorded a 12.5 percent decline to N6000 per kilogram.
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Analysts say the fall in food prices offers short term relief to households and small businesses grappling with high operating costs. However they warn that the overall inflation outlook remains fragile amid high transport costs energy prices and currency pressures.
The NBS noted that improved food availability from ongoing harvests contributed to the decline while experts urged policymakers to sustain agricultural interventions to support food stability and rural incomes.
Economists believe that if current supply trends continue small and medium enterprises SMEs in the food value chain may experience reduced input costs and improved profit margins in the short term.
While the September data provides optimism on inflation management experts say the next few months will determine whether the trend represents a lasting shift or a temporary seasonal relief.
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