STATE OF PLAY: A major Democratic group is warning party donors to expect a “MAGA surge” in the midterms that will benefit Republicans, Yahoo News Chief National Correspondent Jon Ward reports.
“Democratic consultants are telling party donors that while the shifting political landscape will give their candidates a fighting chance this fall, they are likely facing a huge increase in Republican turnout,” Ward writes.
“The ‘MAGA Surge is real,’ said a presentation for donors by America Votes, a Democratic group that coordinates get-out-the-vote efforts.
“Democrats know that they are competitive in many races that might have been blowouts a few months ago, for a few reasons: The Supreme Court’s decision eliminating the constitutional right to an abortion, as well as ebbing gas prices and a string of legislative accomplishments by Democrats.
“‘BUT,’ warned the presentation, which was provided to Yahoo News, ‘what we’re up against: GOP turnout will be very high.’
“Democrats expect this ‘MAGA surge’ largely because turnout in Republican primaries so far this year has been sky-high, just as it was in 2021.”
The term “MAGA surge” might be something of a misnomer — the presentation didn’t specify whether the GOP’s votes would be coming mostly from hard-core supporters of former President Donald Trump or more moderate Republicans. The presentation also didn’t delve into why Republicans have been turning out in droves.
It did, however, warn that Democrats will need to embrace traditional means to get out the vote, such as door-knocking, and not just rely on an improving national environment. As Ward notes, “In 2020, Democrats stopped meeting voters in person at their homes, out of concern over the spread of the coronavirus. Republicans did not, and in states like Texas, Democrats concluded afterward that Republicans turned out more voters than they had in part because they had not been going door to door.
“In the 2022 cycle, Democrats know that college-educated supporters who are engaged with politics are likely to vote and don’t need much help,” Ward writes. “But lower-income voters who often don’t pay as much attention to politics, if any, need that face-to-face visit. And in an election they expect to be close in many key states, those votes could be the difference.”
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