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Sunday, 4 February 2024

Morning Brief: Earnings to test market rally this week

Yahoo Finance Morning Brief withh Myles Udland and Sam Ro

Sunday, Feb 04

Earnings to test market rally: What to know this week

Today's Takeaway is by Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter.

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Stocks are back near record highs with the S&P 500 finishing Friday at 4,959, its highest close ever. All three major indexes logged gains for the week, surviving a tumultuous week of trading.

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Stocks initially slid following lackluster tech results from Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), and sold off further on Wednesday when Fed Chair Jerome Powell said an interest rate cut in March is not the "base case."

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But blowout earnings from Meta (META) and Amazon (AMZN), combined with a stronger-than-expected January jobs report, sent stocks into rally mode.

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For the week, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) rose more than 1% while the Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) gained just under 1%.

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A slew of corporate earnings including reports from Eli Lily (LLY), Disney (DIS), Spotify (SPOT), McDonald's (MCD), Chipotle (CMG), and Pepsi (PEP) will greet investors in the week ahead amid a light economic schedule.

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✂️ The rate cut debate rolls on

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Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell poured cold water on investor hopes for a March interest rate cut during his press conference following the January Fed meeting. Powell said the central bank needs "greater confidence" in inflation's path lower before cutting rates.

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Economists believe the January jobs report, which showed the US economy added 353,000 jobs in the month, bolsters the Fed's case it can wait to cut interest rates without pushing the economy into recession. But the report also brought forth concerns about inflation reaccelerating, as wages increased 4.6% in the month, the highest pace of growth since July 2023.

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"After the FOMC meeting on Wednesday, we maintained confidence in our expectation of a March rate cut," Jefferies US economist Thomas Simons wrote in a note to clients on Friday. "After today's data, however, it is hard to see how that is going to happen. Barring a significant turnaround in the February data, or very weak inflation data between now and mid-March, it is much more likely that the FOMC will hold policy rates steady in March."

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Investors are now placing a roughly 20% chance on a interest rate cut at the March meeting, per the CME FedWatch Tool. On Thursday, there had been a nearly 40% chance and a month ago nearly an 80% chance.

💰 Earnings check-in

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Corporate earnings appeared to round a corner to end last week. After S&P 500 earnings had been posting a more than 1% decline for the quarter, a swath of earnings in the past week flipped the narrative headline with earnings beats from tech stalwarts Apple, Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft, per FactSet.

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The latest data from FactSet shows earnings are expected to grow 1.6% in the fourth quarter. And notably, estimates for the first quarter have been kept in check too. In the past month analysts have trimmed first quarter earnings estimates by 1.4%, less than the five-year average of a 2.1% cut.

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Over 100 S&P 500 companies are slated to report earnings this week, per FactSet.

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💤 Mainly quiet on the economic front

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After an onslaught of economic data that's showed the US economy is off to a hot start to the first quarter, investors will have few data points to dissect in the week ahead. Weekly initial jobless claims will continue to be closely tracked as companies announce layoffs while an update on activity in the services sector on Monday will catch investor attention.

Earnings and economic calendar

Monday

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Earnings: Allegiant (ALGT), Caterpillar (CAT), Chegg (CHGG), Estee Lauder (EL), McDonald's (MCD), Palantir (PLTR), Tyson (TSN)

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Economic news: S&P Global US services PMI, January final (52.9 expected, 52.9 prior), S&P Global composite PMI, January final (52.3 expected), ISM services index, January (52 expected, 50.5 prior)

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Tuesday

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Earnings: Amgen (AMGN), Chipotle (CMG), e.l.f. Beauty (ELF ), Eli Lilly (LLY), Spotify (SPOT), Fiserv (FI), Ford (F), Hertz (HTZ), BP (BP), Snap (SNAP), Toyota (TM)

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No notable economic news.

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Wednesday

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Earnings: Alibaba (BABA), Arm Holdings (ARM), CVS (CVS), Mattel (MAT), Paycom (PAYC), Paypal (PYPL), Roblox (RBLX), Uber (UBER), Walt Disney (DIS), Wynn Resorts (WYNN)

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Economic news: MBA Mortgage Applications, Feb. 2 (-7.2% prior), consumer credit, December ($16.5 billion expected, $23.75 billion prior)

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Thursday

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Earnings: Affirm (AFRM), Aurora Cannabis (ACB), Bill.com (BILL), ConocoPhillips (COP), Expedia (EXPE), Hershey (HSY), Pinterest (PINS), Spirit (SAVE), Take-Two Interactive (TTWO)

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Economic news: Initial jobless claims, Feb. 3 (215,000 expected, 224,000 prior), wholesale inventories month-over-month, December final (0.4% prior), wholesale trade sales month over month, December (0% prior)

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Friday

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Earnings: Canopy Growth (CGC), Pepsi (PEP)

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Economic news: Consumer Price Index revisions

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Saturday, 3 February 2024

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Morning Brief: Declining inflation means better pay

Web Version

Saturday, Feb 03

5 key stories we read this week

💪 The January jobs report: The stronger-than-expected jobs report showed yet another sign of a healthy economy. It's something that makes investors nervous, as it may mean delaying rate cuts. But it's also something that Fed Chair Jay Powell noted is ultimately a good thing. So long as inflation keeps cooling.

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📈 Meta surprises to the upside: It's been an interesting week for the Magnificent Seven. And for most of these companies, interesting in a bad way. But for Meta, the stock jumped 22% on Friday after solid earnings and announcements of stock buybacks and a dividend.

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📺 Job cuts in streaming and media: Taking a page from last year's playbook from Silicon Valley, the big streamers are taking a hard look at their staffing. Google, Paramount, Disney, and others are cutting jobs in 2024 as profitability remains, once again, streaming's key focus. That's also why Disney is doing a password crackdown of its own.

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🚘 Car insurance is 20% more expensive: Inflation is cooling and mostly that means prices are growing more slowly, rather than actually being cut, though we've seen some of that. One place where things are still out of control is car insurance, which saw a 20% jump in December over the year before. It's the biggest jump since 1995. The reasons why are complicated but boil down to some of the supply chain issues that are still yet to be untangled in the auto industry.

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💰 The ghosts of last year's banking collapse: We're almost a year out from the Silicon Valley Bank drama, but the troubles of New York Community Bancorp, which saw shares crash 41% this week, were a stark reminder that all is not entirely well — even if the Fed noted that 2023's problems have been largely contained.

4 conversations we're still thinking about

🚙 GM CFO Paul Jacobson explains why the company is confident it will hit its EV profitability goal.

💊 Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla talks about the company's guidance and how it will fill the hole from its declining COVID business.

💉 Novo Nordisk CFO Karsten Munk Knudsen talks about boosting US Wegovy supply and production.

🏦 Robert Kaplan, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas former president and CEO, on the Fed decision and outlook.

Chart of the Week: Declining inflation is increasing how much we all make

This week’s Chart of the Week features an excerpt from our latest Chartbook, a mammoth Yahoo Finance project in which dozens of economists and strategists send us a key chart and say why it’s important.

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We’ve been featuring them in editions of our Morning Brief newsletter all week.

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The almost three dozen charts and explanations tell the story of a strong market and economy carrying momentum into 2024, despite stumbles seen very early in the year.

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Most of all, however, these charts illustrate the nuance often neglected on both bearish and bullish sides of conversations about markets — which too often boil down to AI hype and rate-cut obsession.

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These charts are one of the best ways to get a handle on the factors exerting both upward and downward pressure on stocks, wages, prices, and more. And like most things in life, they don’t always line up perfectly.

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Inflation is cooling. Stocks appear to be overvalued by historical levels. Most stocks aren’t that hot. A productivity boom could be a paradigm shift for everything.

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And, as our Chart of the Week shows, consumers are still spending, supported by a rise in inflation-adjusted take-home pay.

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Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro, noted that this “popular bearish talking point” of a US consumer on its last legs is simply not borne out in the data.

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“[Consumers] have drawn down all their excess savings, and, as a result, they no longer have a cushion of savings from which to spend,” Dutta wrote, summarizing the skeptical case against US consumers.

“I don't buy it. The excess saving story is one that has officially outlived its usefulness.”

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“Consumption is being supported by ongoing gains in real incomes,” Dutta added. “With consumer price inflation slowing, and the labor markets solid, real incomes are rising. Since May, real incomes net of [excluding] transfers, a key recession determinant, are up roughly 3% at an annual rate.”

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And though these figures come from a different data set, Friday’s jobs report showed wage gains continued to impress, rising 0.6% over the prior month in January and 4.5% over last year. And this while inflation continues to moderate.

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No wonder consumer sentiment has been so good — and, this week, looking even better.

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— Ethan Wolff-Mann

For more graphics like this, follow Yahoo Finance on Instagram.

Today's newsletter was edited by Ethan Wolff-Mann.

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Friday, 2 February 2024

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Best Online Jobs for Students: Earning Flexibility and Income Alongside Studies

Juggling studies with part-time work can be challenging, but online jobs offer students a unique advantage: flexibility. Whether you're seeking a steady income stream or occasional cash injections, numerous online opportunities cater to diverse skills and interests. You can read more in this Linkedin post.

High-Demand Online Jobs for Students:

Content Creation:
- Freelance Writing: Craft compelling articles, blog posts, website copy, or social media content for businesses and individuals. Platforms like Upwork, Fiverr, and Contently connect writers with clients. Earning potential: Varies depending on experience, niche, and project scope. Some writers earn $0.10 per word, while others command $1 or more.
- Video Editing: Edit and polish video content for YouTube channels, social media ads, or explainer videos. Utilize editing software like Adobe Premiere Pro or Final Cut Pro. Earning potential: $15-$50 per hour, depending on experience and project complexity.
- Graphic Design: Create visual content like logos, illustrations, social media graphics, or website layouts using design software like Adobe Photoshop or Canva. Earning potential: $20-$75 per hour, depending on experience and project scope.
Online Tutoring: Share your knowledge and expertise by tutoring students online in various subjects. Platforms like Chegg, TutorMe, and Skooli connect tutors with students. Earning potential: $15-$50 per hour, depending on subject, experience, and platform.
Virtual Assistance: Provide administrative, technical, or creative assistance to clients remotely. Tasks may include email management, scheduling appointments, data entry, or social media management. Earning potential: $10-$30 per hour, depending on experience and task complexity.
Social Media Management: Manage social media accounts for businesses or individuals, including content creation, community engagement, and advertising. Earning potential: $15-$50 per hour, depending on experience, account size, and engagement metrics.
Data Entry: Input data into spreadsheets or databases from scanned documents, handwritten forms, or audio recordings. Earning potential: $8-$15 per hour, depending on accuracy and speed.

Additional Online Opportunities:

Website Testing: Provide feedback on website usability and functionality by participating in user testing sessions. Earning potential: $10-$20 per session, depending on platform and test duration.
Online Surveys: Share your opinions and complete surveys on various topics to earn rewards or cash. Earning potential: Varies depending on the platform and survey length, typically $0.50-$5 per survey.
Transcription: Transcribe audio or video recordings into written text. Requires good listening skills and typing accuracy. Earning potential: $10-$20 per hour, depending on experience and audio quality.

Choosing the Right Online Job:

Consider your skills, interests, available time, and desired income level when selecting an online job. Research different platforms, compare earning potential, and read reviews to find opportunities that align with your goals. Remember, building a strong online presence and portfolio can enhance your credibility and attract better clients or projects.

Remember:

Time Management: Online jobs offer flexibility, but managing your time effectively is crucial to balance work and studies. Set clear schedules, communicate deadlines clearly, and avoid multitasking to optimize productivity.
Legitimacy: Be cautious of scams disguised as online job opportunities. Research companies and platforms thoroughly before investing time or money.
Taxes: Report your income from online jobs to the relevant authorities to comply with tax regulations.

By exploring these diverse online opportunities and approaching them strategically, students can successfully earn income while gaining valuable skills and experience, all while maintaining academic focus.

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Understanding Water Softeners for Well Water

Having well water comes with its own set of unique challenges, one of which is hard water. Hard water contains high levels of dissolved minerals like calcium and magnesium, which can cause a variety of problems in your home, from mineral buildup in pipes and appliances to dry skin and hair. Water softeners are specifically designed to address these issues by removing hardness minerals from your water supply.

Do I Need a Water Softener for My Well Water?

Whether or not you need a water softener for your well water depends on several factors, including:

The hardness level of your water: You can get your water tested by a professional or use a home test kit to determine the hardness level. Generally, water with a hardness level above 7 grains per gallon (gpg) is considered hard and can benefit from softening.
The problems you're experiencing: If you're noticing mineral buildup, soap scum, or other issues associated with hard water, then a softener can help.
Your personal preferences: Some people simply prefer the feel of soft water for showering, washing dishes, and other tasks.

Types of Water Softeners for Well Water

There are two main types of water softeners for well water:

Salt-based softeners: These are the most common type and use ion exchange to remove hardness minerals. They require regular regeneration with salt, which can be a maintenance burden for some users.
Salt-free softeners: These use various technologies, such as template-assisted crystallization (TAC) or magnetic fields, to reduce hardness. They don't require salt but may be less effective than salt-based softeners in some cases.

Choosing the Right Water Softener for Your Needs:

When choosing a water softener for your well water, consider the following factors:

Your water hardness level: This will determine the size and capacity of the softener you need.
Your water flow rate: Make sure the softener can handle the amount of water your home uses.
Your budget: Salt-based softeners are generally less expensive than salt-free models, but you'll need to factor in the cost of salt.
Your maintenance preferences: If you're not interested in regular maintenance, a salt-free softener may be a better option.

Additional Considerations for Well Water:

Iron and other contaminants: If your well water contains iron or other contaminants, you may need a combination water treatment system that includes a softener and an additional filter.
Professional installation: It's generally recommended to have a professional install your water softener to ensure it's properly sized and connected.

Benefits of Using a Water Softener for Well Water

Reduces mineral buildup: This can prevent damage to pipes, appliances, and fixtures.
Improves soap and detergent performance: Soft water allows soap and detergent to lather better, so you can use less and get better cleaning results.
Softer skin and hair: Soft water can help reduce dryness and irritation.
Longer lifespan for appliances: Soft water can help extend the life of your washing machine, dishwasher, and other water-using appliances.

Conclusion:

Water softeners can be a valuable investment for homeowners with well water. By considering your specific needs and water quality, you can choose the right softener to enjoy the benefits of soft water throughout your home.

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