Stakeholders and exporters are raising the alarm over a potential $6 billion annual loss in export revenue following the United States' imposition of a 14% tariff on Nigerian goods.
The new tariff, introduced by President Donald Trump, threatens Nigeria's trade benefits under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), a US trade program that has enabled duty-free exports for eligible African countries since 2000.
The federal government has acknowledged the looming threat and pledged to accelerate economic diversification to cushion the impact. According to Industry, Trade, and Investment Minister, Dr. Jumoke Oduwole, the policy shift poses a major setback for Nigeria's non-oil export drive.
"SMEs that built their businesses around AGOA exemptions now face rising costs and uncertain buyer commitments," Oduwole said, warning that the new 10–14% tariffs on key export categories could severely undermine competitiveness.
Currently, over 90% of Nigeria's exports to the US are crude oil and mineral fuels, with non-oil exports like urea, lead, and agricultural products making up less than 5%.
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Stakeholders worry that the tariff could trigger job losses, lower foreign exchange inflows, and shrink Nigeria's export volumes. Maritime University lecturer, Charles Okerefe, described the move as "a profound jolt" to the business environment. "Without alternatives, the labour force may be the first casualty," he said.
Eugene Nweke, Head of Research at the Sea Empowerment Research Centre, added that the policy would erode Nigeria's gains under AGOA and discourage future export growth.
"The 14% tariff makes Nigerian goods less competitive. It's a direct blow to diversification efforts and could weaken our position in the US market," Nweke said.
While the US argues the tariff was in response to Nigeria's own 27% duty on American goods, experts like Dr. Muda Yusuf, CEO of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, believe the broader economic fallout may be limited — for now.
"Nigeria's exports to the US only account for about 11% of our total. But the real concern is the closure of the AGOA trade window and the global supply chain disruptions that may follow," Yusuf warned.
He added that the ripple effect could push up US inflation, raise the cost of imports into Nigeria, and put further pressure on oil prices — a key revenue source for the country.
Despite the uncertainty, the federal government insists it will use this moment to fast-track reforms, encourage value-added exports, and improve global trade competitiveness.
