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Thursday, 18 July 2024

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Morning Brief: Small caps are showing up the tech titans

Thursday, Jul 18

👋 Good morning! Wednesday was a tough day if you're a tech stock, pulling the Nasdaq and S&P 500 down by 2.8% and 1.4%, respectively.

What we're watching

📉 Tech stock trouble: The Nasdaq's 2.8% drop Wednesday was the worst single-day decline since December 2022 as concerns over international trade restrictions from the Biden administration and Trump's stance on Taiwan rattled tech stocks, especially Taiwan-based TSMC. At the same time, however, the continued broadening of the stock market rally to non-tech stocks did continue Wednesday, even if it wasn't enough to drag stocks back into positive territory.

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📺 Netflix reports: Netflix will report quarterly results after the bell Thursday, one of the first Big Tech companies to report. Investors have expectations as high as its stock price, which notched a record high in early July, but has since lost about 6%. The company should have more to share about its new forays into ads, live sports, and events — as well as the overall streaming landscape.

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🏦 Trump turns heat up on Fed: An interview with Donald Trump is piling more pressure onto the Fed — though in the opposite direction as recent data. The former president and current candidate stressed the central bank shouldn't cut before the election, despite a September rate cut coming more and more into focus of late. Fed Chair Jay Powell has stressed time and time again that the central bank will remain independent, following its mandate.

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📉 Goldman Sachs calls a correction: Despite a recent broadening in the stock market — and the S&P 500's all-time high Tuesday — Goldman Sachs's Scott Rubner says a correction is coming. The Goldman managing director sees the good news priced in and both historical precedent for August and a lack of fresh capital entering markets as a recipe for a drop.

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💰 Another busy day of results: A swath of companies is set to report quarterly results, including Taiwan-based TSMC, which saw its stock plummet after Trump's comments that Taiwan should pay for its own defense. Joining the chipmaker are Domino's, Blackstone, Alaska Air, Abbott Labs, Novartis, and a few others.

What we're reading

🌊 Trump is starting to move markets.

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🍪 Nvidia, ASML, and TSMC stocks got hammered — here's why.

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🗳️ What 'Project 2025' could mean for your taxes.

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✈️ United Airlines Q3 profit outlook disappoints amid industrywide discounting pressure.

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🏦 Regional bank stocks rally thanks to Jay Powell (and maybe Trump).

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🏀 Warner Bros. Discovery under pressure as 'vicious debate' ensues over NBA media rights.

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🤝 Alphabet's Wiz deal could face D.C. pushback no matter who wins the White House.

Why small caps are showing up the tech titans

Today's Takeaway is by Jared Blikre, Markets Reporter.

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Small caps are solving Wall Street's concentration problem.

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Though small caps stumbled Wednesday, in the five prior trading days, the Russell 2000 rocketed an eyewatering 12% as the Nasdaq Composite barely remained green. It was a surge that had never been surpassed by any of the major US stock indexes, according to Bespoke.

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The catalyzing event was last week's dovish Consumer Price Index, which reported an actual decline in prices of 0.1%. The sign change in inflation was enough to convince holdouts on Wall Street that there's more to stocks in 2024 than the well-known cadre of tech titans riding the artificial intelligence wave.

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But laggards are once again turning to leaders, bringing to mind the "everything rally" that dominated the fourth quarter last year.

As the Magnificent titans wilt, smaller pockets of strength fill the leadership void. Sector rotation is the lifeblood of bull markets, they say.

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Since last Tuesday's close, Real Estate has led the large-cap sectors, up 7%. On its heels, cyclicals and values are well represented, as Materials, Industrials, Energy, and Financials are all up about 5%.

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The only two losers are also the highest-returning sectors for the year — Tech and Communication Services — down 4% and 2%, respectively.

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Delving into the financial sector, we see the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF has now clawed its way back to the drop-off point from last year's internet bank crisis. The 16% surge is a notable move for regionals, which have had a rough two years since their 2022 highs.

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The SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF also jumped more than 14% and on Monday notched its first record high since March.

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While the prospect for tamer inflation is behind much of the move, Trump's surge in popularity after the weekend assassination attempt is also a factor. Investors believe banks will benefit from a lighter regulatory touch, and the steepening yield curve over the last week also helps.

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Then there's crypto. For all the talk about spot ether ETFs, the bitcoin halving, and Gary Gensler — Trump's crypto support has helped bring bitcoin back from a nasty sell-off that might have had bearish legs.

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After all the gyrations over the last week, the two leading sectors in 2024 remain Tech and Communication Services — each holding on to gains of about 17%. But the handwringing over concentration can finally take a breather — at least, for now.

Chart of the day

The S&P 500 closed lower by more than 1% on Wednesday, largely due to a sell-off in tech stocks.

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The Information Technology sector declined nearly 4%, its worst one-day performance since December 2022.

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The massive decline in Technology consumed what was an otherwise OK day inside the index and the broadening trade as a whole, with eight sectors outperforming the S&P 500 itself, including five closing in positive territory.

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This serves as a reminder for index investors entering what some think could be a continuing rotation out of the technology-led rally of the past year into other cyclical areas of the market that haven't participated as much in the S&P 500's surge higher.

As this happens, even if other sectors catch a bid, the index itself may not keep setting new record highs, given the technology sector makes up nearly one-third of the S&P 500.

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"We could see a little bit of this churn where some stocks are passing the baton to other stocks," Ritholtz Wealth Management chief market strategist Callie Cox told Yahoo Finance on Monday. "Tech stocks are passing the baton to other stocks. Sure, we may not see prices move up as quickly as they have. But this is the kind of movement that strengthens the foundation of a bull. It means that this rally can be stronger and live longer eventually."

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— Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter

Morning Brief is written and edited by Ethan Wolff-Mann. For the web version, click here. Follow all the action throughout the day on Yahoo Finance and on the Yahoo Finance app.

Earnings and economic calendar

Thursday

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Economic data: Initial jobless claims, July 13 (228,000 expected, 222,000 previously); Continuing jobless claims (1.852 million previously)

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Earnings: TSMC (TSM), Netflix (NFLX), Domino's (DPZ), Blackstone (BX), Alaska Air (ALK), Abbott Labs (ABT), Novartis (NVS), Textron (TXT), Cintas (CTAS), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), PPG (PPG)