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Sunday, 21 July 2024

Morning Brief: Trump and Biden should listen to what Big Food is saying

Sunday, Jul 21

👋 Good morning! Here's what our Executive Editor, Brian Sozzi, is thinking about.

Trump and Biden should listen to what Big Food is saying

Today's Takeaway is by Brian Sozzi, Executive Editor.

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President Biden is a super busy guy, something that I was reminded of instantly when I interviewed him inside the White House in mid-May.

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He's running a country and a reelection campaign (for now, on the latter...). He is studying poll numbers. He's fending off both Covid-19 and increasing calls by those in his own party to step down as the Democratic nominee. He's contending with challenges to a golf match by Trump. He's a husband, father, and grandfather.

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As for Trump, he is playing a lot of golf, campaigning, fighting off legal troubles, and trying to recover speedily from an assassination attempt.

Despite their jam-packed schedules, I encourage both to put the poll numbers aside and turn off CNN, Morning Joe, Hannity, and Fox & Friends reruns.

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I would devote 10 minutes immediately to the earnings calls of big food makers PepsiCo and Conagra Brands from a week ago. Here are the transcripts for the PepsiCo and Conagra Brands calls, compliments of Yahoo Finance.

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Then, Trump and Biden should summon the CEOs of PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, Conagra Brands, Campbell Soup, Walmart, Target, Whole Foods, Anheuser-Busch, JM Smucker, and others of similar ilk for a get-together.

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The goal: obtain granular detail on why inflation is still so sticky and what specific actions food companies are taking to either offer more value or cut prices. The reason: American households are struggling, and it's going to take more than green jobs (Biden) and corporate tax cuts (Trump) to fix the problem.

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Just look at this consumer confidence chart from Morgan Stanley — confidence is back on a downtrend despite a "steady" job market.

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If these power men and their advisers aren't demanding answers from Big Food, the natural follow-up would be, why the hell not?

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It's not enough to read government inflation data. I have personally long thought CPI, PPI, and all sorts of reports are wonky stuff to be used by people with econ PHDs or algo traders, detached from the real challenges that a single parent with two growing kids is facing.

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These are the people who need an explanation of what is truly going on with prices and how four more years of the Biden administration will lessen the financial pain. Or how four more years of Trump will eradicate inflation for some time. Communicate clearly and effectively; the average household needs to hear it.

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Because if the Biden administration doesn't do this simple exercise and Trump sidesteps it as well then, summoning the current president's go-to line, here's the deal: Consumers are going to take their financial frustrations out in 2025 and materially pull back on spending, and that will not be good for markets.

Former president Donald Trump speaks during the first presidential debate of the 2024 elections at CNN's studios in Atlanta, Ga on Thursday, June 27, 2024. (Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images)

Here is what I am talking about in terms of inflation realities.

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From PepsiCo's earnings call transcript:

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"I know that for many categories, the multiple-year inflation that we had to take because our input costs went up has created some perception and some reality in a lot of households that food is expensive. And consumers are making choices, and they can make choices to cook versus buy finished goods or finished products, or they can make a lot of decisions around how they spend their money and how do they feed themselves every day with the lowest budget." — CEO Ramon Laguarta

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I caught up with Laguarta after the earnings call. I think you will see PepsiCo ramp up promotional strategies this summer and into year-end to reflect the financial situations of many households. Those strategies could range from cutting prices to offering two free bags of chips in a multi-pack.

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That said, I left the call feeling the consumer is in a darker place than many people think. It's not often you hear a food CEO say potato chips need a "value reset," which is another way of saying potato chips have gotten too expensive.

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Potato chips. Too expensive.

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Expect more of this lingo as other food companies report earnings soon.

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In the same vein, I also caught up with the CEO of a very large publicly traded alcohol company. They told me they are seeing a major market share grab among private-label products at discounters like Walmart as consumers shun more expensive brand names. This CEO's products don't have private label rivals in the US, so their comments only added fuel to my consumer worries.

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And then, from Conagra Brands' earnings call transcript:

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"The nudging [of consumers by investing in lower prices] is working, but it is a transition. It's a process, and we've moved the needle meaningfully. And that will continue to move positive, but it's a transition. It's not one of these events where we sprinkle a little money on the consumer and they forget that they ever experienced runaway inflation. It's a period of adjustment." — CEO Sean Connolly

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Wasn't frozen food always the cheaper option for dinner?

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I guess not, says one earnings call transcript I hope both candidates read.

Morning Brief is written and edited by Ethan Wolff-Mann. For the web version, click here. Follow all the action throughout the day on Yahoo Finance and on the Yahoo Finance app.