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The week ahead | 📈 Record highs and the best run in 53 years: The stock market keeps hitting new record highs.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) and Nasdaq (^IXIC) ended the week at their highest levels ever. According to research from Deutsche Bank, the S&P 500 has now risen for 16 of the last 18 weeks for the first time since 1971.
In the week ahead, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's testimony on Capitol Hill and the February jobs report will put the stock market's roaring rally to the test. Updates on economic activity in the services sector and job openings are also on the schedule.
With most of the S&P 500 done reporting earnings, Target (TGT), Costco (COST), and Kroger (KR) are three of the largest consumer-facing brands reporting corporate results in the coming week.
🏛️ Powell meets Congress: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to deliver his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate beginning on Wednesday.
Investors will listen closely for Powell's updates on the overall state of the US economy, the fight against inflation, and when the central bank may begin cutting interest rates.
Entering the week, Bloomberg data shows markets are pricing for the Fed to cut interest rates three times this year beginning in June as inflation's decline has slowed. This aligns with Chair Powell's recent commentary and projections from the Fed itself.
The Federal Open Market Committee will announce its latest policy decision and summary of economic projections on March 20.
👷♂️ Labor market lowdown: With the inflation story recently hitting a snag as the Fed's preferred gauge saw its largest monthly increase in a year, Wall Street consensus now expects the central bank to be patient in cutting interest rates.
Economists say a key to this policy decision going smoothly and the economy avoiding recession will be the labor market remaining resilient.
New jobs data slated for the week ahead includes updates on wages and job openings. The headliner will be the February jobs report, which will be released on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The report is expected to show that 190,000 nonfarm payroll jobs were added to the US economy last month, with the unemployment rate remaining at 3.7%, according to data from Bloomberg. In January, the US economy shocked Wall Street with 353,000 job additions while the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for the third straight month.
ADP's monthly read on private payrolls out Wednesday, and reports Thursday on initial jobless claims and job cuts will round out a busy week for labor market watchers.
—Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter |
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What we're reading | 👻 Wells Fargo is slowly ridding itself from the ghosts of crises past as a recent consent order related to its 2016 fake accounts scandal was lifted, putting its current management team back on offense amid a push into the higher tiers of the lucrative investment banking market.
🕵️♀️ What Iosing $11,300 to identity fraud taught Yahoo Finance senior columnist Janna Herron is that the safeguards available to most consumers to protect their personal data often don't work.
"Experts suggest creating strong passwords with extra layers of authentication, changing them often, and not using the same one on multiple accounts," Janna writes. "Having text alerts on your credit and debit cards for all transactions can also thwart illegal activity in real-time, as can email alerts when someone tries to change an email or address associated with your account.
"You should do all these — and we did — but they wouldn't have prevented the fraud we experienced. Our data was already out there for the picking."
📺 Streaming isn't the media industry's only problem, as a free-fall in cable subscribers has turned both cash and attention away from an industry that just spent a decade losing money on streaming services to build scale. Streaming profits are still a work in progress, and the ad environment keeps getting worse. |
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| Watch on Yahoo Finance Live | 🚨 Mark your calendars for Monday's debut of Market Domination, a new show airing at 3:00 p.m. ET, Monday-Friday, that will bring the Yahoo Finance community inside the action-packed last hour of trading, followed by Market Domination Overtime at 4:00 p.m. ET, breaking down the post-close earnings rush, the biggest themes of the day, and more. |
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Chart of the day: Hot starts lead strong years | One of the top calls on Wall Street entering 2024 was for a choppy first few months of trading before a late-year rally. Many expected that uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path and election fears would grip investors.
That didn't happen.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite had their best February since 2015 amid several blowout earnings reports from Big Tech companies. Those improved earnings outlooks have prompted several Wall Street strategists to boost their year-end targets for the S&P 500.
History says stocks continuing to chug higher is the most likely outcome.
Research from Carson Group's Ryan Detrick shows that the S&P 500 has started the year positive in January and February 28 times since 1950. The benchmark average was positive over the next 12 months in 26 of those instances.
On average, when the first two months have been positive, the S&P 500 has delivered a return of 19.9% for the year, almost double the index's average annual return.
While Detrick noted that this isn't an exact projection for a nearly 20% return this year, if the S&P 500 did rise by the average amount, it would end 2024 at 5,719.
—Josh Schafer, Markets Reporter |
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Earnings and economic calendar | Monday - Economic news: No notable economic releases.
Tuesday - Economic news: S&P Global US services PMI, February, final (51.4 expected, 51.3 prior); S&P Global Composite US composite PMI, February final (51.4 prior); ISM Services Index, February (52.9 expected, 53.4 prior); Durable goods orders, January final (-6.1% prior)
- Earnings: Box (BOX), ChargePoint Holdings (CHPT), Crowdstrike (CRWD), Nio (NIO), Nordstrom (JWN), Ross Stores (ROST), Target (TGT), Vivid Seats (SEAT)
Wednesday - Economic news: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell begins semi-annual testimony on Capital Hill; MBA Mortgage Applications, week ended March 1 (-5.6% prior); ADP private payrolls, February (+145,000 expected, +107,000 prior); Fed Reserve Beige Book
- Earnings: Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF), Campbell's (CPB), Foot Locker (FL), JD.Com (JD), Victoria's Secret (VSCO)
Thursday - Economic news: Challenger jobs cuts, year over year, February, (-20% prior); Unit labor costs, fourth quarter (+0.7% expected, +0.5% prior); Nonfarm productivity, fourth quarter (+3.1% expected, +3.2% prior); Initial jobless claims, week ending March 2 (215,000 prior)
- Earnings: American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Big Lots (BIG), BJ's (BJ), Broadcom (AVGO), Burlington Stores (BURL), Costco (COST), DocuSign (DOCU), Gap (GPS), Kroger (KR), Marvell Technology (MRVL), MongoDB (MDB)
Friday - Economic news: Nonfarm payrolls, February (+190,000 expected, +353,000 prior); Unemployment rate, February (3.7% expected, 3.7% previously); Average hourly earnings, month over month, February (+0.2% expected, +0.6% prior); Average hourly earnings, year over year, February (+4.3% expected, +4.5% prior); Average weekly hours worked, February (34.3 expected, 34.1 prior); Labor force participation rate, February (62.5% prior)
- Earnings: No notable earnings releases.
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