The World Trade Organisation (WTO) has raised its forecast for global goods trade growth in 2025, citing rising demand for artificial intelligence (AI)-related products, early U.S. import activity amid tariff concerns, and stronger trade performance among developing economies.
In its latest Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Report, the WTO projected merchandise trade to grow by 2.4% in 2025, a sharp increase from its earlier estimate of 0.9%. The revision marks a strong recovery from last year's weak performance, driven largely by digital innovation and resilient emerging markets.
The organisation credited AI-linked trade — such as semiconductors, data servers, and cloud infrastructure — for accounting for 42% of total global trade growth, far exceeding its previous 15% share of total trade.
WTO Senior Economist, Marc Bacchetta, said structural investments in digital infrastructure have been the key driver of this momentum. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala also highlighted that stronger South-South trade and moderate policy responses to tariffs have helped sustain global commerce.
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Trade among developing economies grew by 8% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, outperforming the global average of 6%.
Okonjo-Iweala noted that the improved outlook presents opportunities for small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging markets to expand into new export segments, especially in digital and AI-related value chains.
However, the WTO warned that rising protectionism and trade policy uncertainty could still threaten future gains, urging governments to maintain open and predictable trade environments to support SMEs and broader economic recovery.
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